AGP Executive Report

Libya’s Fragile Equilibrium Under Strain: A week of drone attacks on Zawiya’s energy infrastructure and the killing of eastern Libya’s military intelligence chief in Benghazi has underlined how quickly the “calm” can crack, with the NOC warning attacks could force a force majeure. Power Crisis, Governance Response: Tripoli moved to replace leadership at the General Electricity Company of Libya (GECOL) after repeated grid collapses and blackouts, appointing Bashir Al-Marash and a new board as the government struggles to stabilize generation and supply. Oil-Industry Funding Push: Libya is again pitching major investment—up to $30–$40bn—to revive production toward 2 million bpd, but security risks, militia control, and governance gaps remain major barriers for partners. Migration and Humanitarian Fallout: Nine migrant bodies were recovered near Tajoura after a boat capsized, while rescue groups reported additional deaths and rescues off Libya—another grim reminder of the route’s danger. Turkey’s Libya Pivot: Ankara’s renewed access to both Tripoli and Benghazi, highlighted by Hakan Fidan’s Benghazi reception, is reshaping Libya’s diplomatic chessboard and raising the stakes around maritime and energy claims. Regional Energy Pressure: Separately, global oil shocks tied to Hormuz closure and rising diesel prices are feeding into the wider cost pressures that Libya’s import-dependent economy already feels.

Libya Power Crisis: The grid collapsed again across western, central and southern areas, forcing power plants offline and shutting down Great Man-Made River pumping stations, triggering fresh public anger and renewed pressure on the Tripoli-based government. Government Accountability: Prime Minister Abdul-Hamid Dbeibah dismissed the board of the state electricity company (GECOL) and appointed a new board as load shedding and repeated blackouts continue. Energy Security: Libya’s NOC reported July fuel supplies worth about $1.006bn, with diesel the biggest share and some deliveries deferred due to berth congestion. Diplomacy & Eastern Libya: Turkish FM Hakan Fidan was welcomed in Benghazi at Khalifa Haftar’s family compound, giving Ankara access to both Libya’s rival power centers and raising regional maritime and political stakes. Sahel Hostage Fallout: Freed U.S. missionary pilot Kevin Rideout’s release is again linked to eastern Libyan forces’ role in brokering his freedom, underscoring Haftar’s influence beyond Libya. Regional Migration Pressure: Italian NGO Emergency rescued 50 migrants off Libya while seven died; more bodies were also reported in the central Mediterranean. Health Supply Reform: Libya’s Medical Supply Organisation launched a pilot “Sustainable Medical Supply Platform” to improve medicine planning, procurement, storage and tracking. Sports & Contracts: FIFA reportedly cleared Zambian winger Lameck Banda to play for Libyan club Al-Swehly despite an ongoing contract dispute with Italian side Lecce.

Libya Energy Security: A blast near Zawiya’s power station knocked generating units offline, deepening pressure on western Libya’s grid after a week of drone-linked attacks on electricity and oil infrastructure. Libya Politics & Institutions: Libya’s High Council of State rejected Central Bank governor Naji Issa’s resignation, urging him to stay to protect monetary stability and curb spending. Eastern Libya Security: Benghazi saw the killing of Haftar’s military intelligence chief, Maj.-Gen. Fawzi al-Mansouri, in a car bombing, raising fears of renewed instability ahead of possible talks. Migration & Humanitarian Crisis: Italian charity Emergency rescued 50 migrants off Libya near Zuwara while recovering seven bodies; two survivors were in critical condition. Regional Diplomacy: Turkish foreign policy expert Bakir Atajan said Ankara’s support for western Libya hasn’t delivered tangible gains and argued for direct dialogue with eastern figures to unify institutions. Hostage/Counterterrorism: American missionary pilot Kevin Rideout thanked Libyan forces in the east, including Saddam Haftar, after securing his release from a Daesh-linked affiliate in the Sahel. International Context: Ceuta protests continued as hundreds of migrants demanded asylum from Spain instead of being returned to Morocco.

Zawiya Energy Crisis: Western Libya saw fresh power disruption after Zawia Power Station suffered a technical fault, triggering a broad blackout; the outage comes amid a wider pattern of drone-linked attacks and explosions that have repeatedly hit oil and electricity infrastructure, raising fresh fears for energy security. Eastern Security Shock: Libya’s military intelligence chief for Khalifa Haftar’s eastern forces, Maj.-Gen. Fawzi al-Mansouri, was killed in a Benghazi car bombing, renewing concerns about instability as factions maneuver ahead of possible political talks. Central Bank Politics: Libya’s High Council of State rejected Central Bank Governor Naji Issa’s resignation, urging him to stay and focus on spending control and protecting foreign exchange and banking stability. Hostage Release: An American pilot, Kevin Rideout, was freed after being held by an ISIS affiliate in Mali, with eastern Libya forces credited for securing his release and logistics for return. Health Services at Home: Tripoli-backed plans to localize cancer care gained traction as Sabrata’s National Cancer Institute reported major 2026 H1 activity, while Libya’s Atomic Energy Corporation proposed rehabilitating the Tajoura reactor to produce radioisotopes domestically. Regional Diplomacy: Turkey’s FM Hakan Fidan visited Benghazi and met eastern leadership under Ankara’s “one Libya” approach, with the timing shadowed by the recent assassination. Migration Pressure: Hundreds of migrants protested in Spain’s Ceuta, demanding asylum rather than return to Morocco, as deaths of migrants at sea linked to Libya routes continue to be reported.

Energy Security in Zawiya: Western Libya saw a major blackout after Zawia Power Station suffered a “technical fault,” with GECOL saying power was gradually restored while teams investigate what triggered the outage. Drone-Linked Energy Attacks: Separate reporting ties Zawiya’s recent explosions to a wider pattern of strikes on interconnected oil and electricity assets, with officials still unclear on whether drones were behind the latest blast near the power station. Fuel Import Pressure: Libya’s Economy Minister Suhail Abu Shiha said fuel imports now reach 40% of total imports, raising concerns about smuggling and the sustainability of fuel subsidies, with hopes pinned on Ras Lanuf refinery output in early 2027. Sahel Militancy & External Fronts: A Libyan military expert warned Ukraine may seek to shift confrontation with Russia into Africa, including recruiting militants via Libya—raising risks of new regional crises. Libya’s Role in Hostage Release: Reuters reports eastern commander Khalifa Haftar helped secure the release of US missionary Kevin Rideout from an Islamic State affiliate in the Sahel, with details disputed between sources. Regional Diplomacy & Trade: Egypt and Libya signed a protocol to launch an Industrial Integration Exhibition in Benghazi (first edition slated for April 2027), aiming to deepen joint ventures and investment. Libya and China Finance: Libya’s central bank talks point to banks joining China’s CIPS payment network and issuing yuan “panda bonds,” linking Libya’s reconstruction financing to China’s financial system. International Context: A major UAE-linked skydiving Guinness record in Libya drew attention, while broader coverage also highlighted migration politics and regional defense pacts affecting Libya’s neighborhood.

Mecca Joint Defence Pact: Turkey, Saudi Arabia and Pakistan signed the “Makkah Joint Defence Agreement,” invoking UN Charter Article 51 so an attack on one is treated as an attack on all—an “Islamic NATO”-style deterrent that Iran criticized as security “on paper.” Regional Diplomacy: Erdogan said Egypt could join the pact, while Turkish FM Hakan Fidan pressed Cairo to see Türkiye-Egypt cooperation as central to regional stability. Libya Security & Diplomacy: Reuters reports eastern commander Khalifa Haftar helped broker the release of US hostage Kevin Rideout from an Islamic State affiliate in the Sahel, with Libya escorting him out—showing Haftar’s role as a security broker. Municipal Governance: Libya’s Municipal Guard says it logged 1,272 violations in H1, including health and construction breaches like renovations without permits. Migration Pressure: SOS Méditerranée says 11 migrant bodies were found off Libya’s coast; separate reporting notes EU irregular entries fell 37% in early 2026, though Ceuta’s late-July surge skewed the picture.

Libya–Sahel Security: Reuters reports eastern commander Khalifa Haftar helped broker the release of US hostage Kevin Rideout from an Islamic State affiliate in Niger, with sources saying a deal was struck and Rideout was handed to Haftar’s authorities via Libya. Energy & Stability: Libya’s Zawiya oil and power infrastructure remains under pressure as drone strikes and fires raise fears of renewed disruption, with officials warning of possible shutdowns and calling for protection of facilities. Migration at Libya’s Doorstep: SOS Méditerranée says 11 migrant bodies were found in Libya’s search-and-rescue zone off Zuwarah, while Frontex reports EU irregular crossings down 37% in early 2026—though it notes the Ceuta surge at end of July. Regional Diplomacy: Türkiye and Egypt are pushing closer coordination amid wider security realignments, including debate over Egypt’s role in the Mecca mutual defense framework. Trade & Industry: Egypt’s Federation of Egyptian Industries signed a protocol with Benghazi’s chambers to host an annual Egyptian-Libyan Industrial Integration Exhibition in April 2027, aiming for joint ventures and value-chain investment.

Libya–Sahel Security Deal: Reuters reports eastern commander Khalifa Haftar helped broker the release of U.S. hostage Kevin Rideout, held by an Islamic State affiliate in Niger, with Rideout handed to eastern Libyan authorities late Thursday; sources say a ransom was paid, while the U.S. State Department and White House did not comment. Energy & Security Shock in West Libya: Libya’s Zawiya oil and power infrastructure is under renewed pressure after drone strikes and fires, while Libya’s military intelligence leadership in the east faces a major blow after the killing of Maj. Gen. Fawzi al-Mansouri in Benghazi. Oil Revenues vs. Production Reality: Libya’s oil export earnings topped $15.2bn in the first half of 2026, but crude output missed targets, adding strain to an already fragile economy. Migration Tragedy Off Libya: SOS Méditerranée says 11 migrant bodies were spotted in Libya’s search-and-rescue area, underscoring the continuing deadly central Mediterranean crossings. Regional Diplomacy: Turkish FM Hakan Fidan met Egypt’s leadership and stressed “one Libya” alignment, while Egypt, Türkiye and Saudi Arabia coordinated on regional crises including Libya.

Libya Unity & Mediation: Turkish FM Hakan Fidan pressed a “One Libya” approach after meeting leaders in Tripoli and Benghazi, signaling Ankara will keep engaging both rival sides to back stability and reunification. Security & Accountability: Libya’s State Council warned the Dbeibah government over drone attacks in Al-Zawiya, saying it failed to identify perpetrators or counter the threat, calling for prosecution. Energy Under Fire: A wave of drone strikes around Zawiya has hit power and oil infrastructure, with Libya’s NOC warning of possible force majeure and refinery disruption. Political Institutions in the Spotlight: The killing of LNA intelligence chief Fawzi al-Mansouri in Benghazi raises new questions for efforts to reunify Libya’s divided authorities. Economy & Oil Revenues: Libya reported oil export earnings of $15.234bn in H1 2026, nearly 9% above target, while production lagged expectations—an IMF-linked warning flags that windfalls could worsen the crisis. Regional Diplomacy: Egypt, Türkiye and Saudi Arabia coordinated in El Alamein on Gaza, Sudan and Libya, while Arab League chief Nabil Fahmy met Fidan and reiterated support for Libya’s unity. Money Laundering Risk: A former Central Bank official warned that Libya’s chaos has fueled money laundering tied to dollar demand and smuggling networks.

Libya Oil Security: Libya’s National Oil Corporation warned repeated drone attacks on the Zawiya refinery complex could force a force majeure and shutdown, as fires hit fuel storage and a petrol tank collapsed; the hub is tied to major upstream fields and domestic supply, raising fears of wider energy disruption. Libya Unity & Mediation: Turkish FM Hakan Fidan pressed Türkiye’s “One Libya” approach after meetings in Tripoli and Benghazi, saying Ankara is engaging both sides to support reunification and security cooperation. Libya Governance Accountability: State Council member Mansour Al-Hassadi accused the Dbeibah government of failing to identify drone sources or hold perpetrators accountable for attacks in Al-Zawiya, calling for prosecution. Libya Economy: Libya’s oil export revenues hit $15.234bn in H1 2026, beating the target, as crude output averaged about 246m barrels and officials linked gains to implementing a unified spending agreement. Regional Diplomacy: Türkiye and Egypt agreed to deepen coordination on Gaza and Libya, with Fidan urging stronger measures over Israeli violations. Money Laundering Watch: A former Central Bank board member warned chaos has enabled money laundering in Libya, driven by dollar demand and illicit smuggling networks. Migration Pressure: IOM reported land arrivals to Ceuta and Melilla surged 300% in early 2026, with Algerians the largest group, highlighting shifting routes via North Africa.

Libya Crisis Update: Libya’s reunification push faces fresh shocks after eastern military intelligence chief Fawzi al-Mansouri was killed in a Benghazi car bombing, while drone attacks hit the Zawiya oil refinery near Tripoli—raising fears of wider disruption as the National Oil Corporation warns it may declare force majeure if attacks continue. Turkiye’s Mediation: Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan wrapped talks in Tripoli and Benghazi, telling both sides Ankara will keep backing dialogue under its “One Libya” approach and stressing broad support for reunification. Energy Security: The Zawiya refinery attacks—linked to fires and damage to fuel storage—underscore how a local strike can quickly become a national supply problem. Migration Pressure on Europe: Greece reported 327 migrants rescued off Crete over two days, with many boats reportedly departing from Libya’s Tobruk. EU Migrant Row: Italy demanded Germany take responsibility for German-flagged NGO rescue ships, escalating the Dublin and asylum dispute. Regional Diplomacy: Fidan also met Egypt’s Arab League and intelligence leadership in el-Alamein, signaling continued Turkish engagement across North Africa.

Libya Security Shock: A car bomb killed eastern Libya’s military intelligence chief Fawzi al-Mansouri in Benghazi, deepening fears of fragile security in Haftar-controlled areas. Energy Under Pressure: Drone attacks continued to hit the Zawiya oil complex and nearby power infrastructure, with Libya’s electricity company reporting major damage and outages after a sabotage-linked telecom disruption and repeated strikes on energy assets. International Reaction: The US and UN mission UNSMIL condemned the attacks and urged an end to clashes and progress toward unified, professional security and political institutions. Turkish Diplomacy: Turkish FM Hakan Fidan said Ankara will keep mediating under its “One Libya” approach, after talks in Tripoli and Benghazi with leaders across Libya’s divide. Oil Market Context: Reports also noted Libya’s oil export revenues exceeding $15bn in H1 2026, even as attacks raise the risk of force majeure and operational disruption.

Energy Security in Focus: Drone strikes kept hitting Libya’s Zawiya oil-and-power hub, burning a key substation and triggering outages in the south; the National Oil Corporation warned repeated attacks could force force majeure and threaten refinery operations and exports. Political Violence in the East: In Benghazi, a car bombing killed Libya’s eastern military intelligence chief Fawzi al-Mansouri, raising new security doubts for Khalifa Haftar’s stronghold and complicating reunification efforts. UN Mediation Pressure: UNSMIL called for an immediate halt to clashes in Zawiya and Sorman, urging accountability and protection of civilians and critical infrastructure. Diplomacy & “One Libya”: Turkish FM Hakan Fidan met Libya’s top officials in Tripoli and then in Benghazi, pushing Ankara’s unification line as Türkiye expands engagement across the country. Economy Watch: Libya’s Ministry of Economy and Trade said oil export revenues topped $15bn in the first half of 2026, supported by a trade surplus and ongoing coordination on public spending.

Oil Infrastructure Under Fire: Drone strikes hit Libya’s Zawiya power station and oil refinery again, sparking major fires at fuel tanks; Libya’s NOC says blazes were brought under control and fuel supplies were not affected, while officials warn of possible force majeure if attacks continue. UN Push for De-escalation: UNSMIL called for an immediate halt to clashes in Zawiya and Sorman and urged accountability, warning civilians and vital facilities are being put at risk. Eastern Security Shock: In Benghazi, a car bomb killed the LNA’s senior military intelligence chief, Major General Fawzi al-Mansouri; the GNU and LNA vowed investigations and legal action, with no group claiming responsibility. Diplomacy Amid Instability: Turkey’s FM Hakan Fidan began a two-day visit to Tripoli and Benghazi, meeting Libya’s leaders as US-led efforts to unify rival authorities face setbacks amid violence. Regional Energy Tension: Oil prices edged up near a one-week high as Strait of Hormuz talks and US-Iran uncertainty kept supply disruption fears alive.

Oil Security in Focus: Libya’s National Oil Corporation says repeated drone attacks on the Zawiya oil complex west of Tripoli have triggered a massive gasoline-tank fire (tank 402-T held about 4.5 million liters) and could lead to force majeure and a full refinery halt if strikes continue; NOC also reports earlier hits on a naphtha reservoir and a water desalination plant, with firefighters still battling the blaze and no serious casualties reported. Eastern Libya Violence: In Benghazi, the head of military intelligence for Khalifa Haftar’s eastern forces, Major-General Fawzi al-Mansouri, was killed in a car bomb/IED blast outside his home; authorities condemned the “terrorist act” and vowed to uncover those behind it. Diplomacy & Unification Push: Türkiye’s FM Hakan Fidan is set to visit Tripoli and Benghazi to advance Ankara’s “One Libya” policy and discuss political, economic, energy, and defense cooperation, including maritime and energy coordination. Regional Politics Watch: A Jordan-Libya MoU was signed to strengthen labor cooperation, including vocational training and labor inspection.

Eastern Security Shock: Brigadier Fawzi Mansouri, head of military intelligence for eastern Libya’s forces aligned with Khalifa Haftar, was killed in a car blast outside his Benghazi home, underscoring how armed groups still shape security despite the 2020 ceasefire. Central Bank Crisis: Libya’s Central Bank governor Naji Issa submitted his resignation to rival legislative chambers, citing “sensitive matters” and without giving reasons, as the country grapples with dinar pressures, prices, and disputes over spending and monetary policy. Energy & Infrastructure: Libya’s Zawiya oil depot saw a fire at fuel tank 402, prompting a “maximum emergency” as authorities urged people to stay away from oil facilities; meanwhile, Egypt and Libya are reportedly nearing an 800-kilometre Tobruk–Alexandria pipeline deal worth over $1 billion to move Libyan crude to Egyptian refineries. Digital Connectivity: ARABSAT and Libya Telecom and Technology (LTT) signed a strategic partnership to expand satellite connectivity across Libya, aiming to boost resilient communications for government and business. State-Building Push: Libya’s presidential council head Mohamed al-Menfi and PM Abdul-Hamed Dbeibah stressed unifying the military under unified civilian leadership, warning against multiple armed forces outside state institutions.